3 CFP National Championship props you can't afford to miss
This College Football Playoff National Championship is tonight, but we’re not here to talk about who will win, who will cover, or even how many points will be scored. This is all about the props! We’ve identified three of the tastiest prop bets, along with some betting advice.
Joe Burrow passing yards (Over/Under 365.5)
The Heisman Trophy winner has put up a nearly perfect season for LSU. He amassed 5,208 passing yards, with a 77.6% completion rate, in 14 games. That is an average of 372 passing yards per game, which is 6.5 yards more than the number here. In the semifinal game against Oklahoma, Burrow threw for 493 yards in a blowout victory.
However, Burrow only managed to reach this number in six of his 14 games. Before the Oklahoma game, he had not reached this number in a game since November 16 at Ole Miss. Clemson will likely be the best defense he has seen this season. Ohio State’s Justin Fields was the only quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards against Clemson this season but came up 45.5 yards short of this number. Only two other quarterbacks managed to gain more than 200 yards against this defense. While I love what Burrow is doing, this number is just too high.
Pick: Under (-115)
Most receptions: Justyn Ross vs. Terrace Marshall
This pick is a matchup between two wide receivers. Clemson’s Justyn Ross has 61 receptions this season, while LSU’s Terrace Marshall for LSU has 43 catches. However, Marshall played only 11 games, while Ross played 13. Ross is -335 to win this matchup, and Marshall is +240.
Looking at the most recent games for both teams, Marshall had five catches against Georgia and six against Oklahoma. Ross had three catches against Virginia and six against Ohio State. Ross is likely to get four to six catches in the national title game, but Marshall has shown the ability to reach a similar catch total. With Clemson’s game plan likely focused on limiting deep plays from Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, I like Marshall’s odds to get a higher reception total.
Pick: Terrace Marshall (+240)
Amari Rodgers receiving yards (Over/Under 34.5)
The Clemson wide receiver is certainly not a target machine. Rodgers has managed only 28 catches on 35 targets this season (2.9 targets per game). If you assume he gets three targets in this one, he will still need to catch all three and average 11.7 yards per catch.
If you like the Over the hope is for Rodgers to break a big one. He did that against Ohio State, with one catch for 38 yards. However, Rodgers only met this number in five of his 12 games this season. Prior to the Ohio State game, he last reached this number was Nov. 2 against Wofford. I like the Under here on the lack of volume.
Pick: Under (-115)