NCAAF Week 10 Betting Guide
One of the things we love most about college football is that new, previously unsung heroes emerge every single Saturday. During Week 9 it was Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson. The junior signal caller singlehandedly beat #5 Oklahoma by completing 18 of 28 passes and rushing for four touchdowns. It was the kind of signature performance that people write folksongs about.
Week 10 is just days away and we can hardly wait to see which new heroes will emerge. Our latest NCAAF Betting Guide has you covered with hard-hitting insight and analysis on some of this week’s most eagerly anticipated games as well as the latest trends and storylines from across the U.S.
*All odds are subject to change.
In the preseason, the game of the year line opened with Georgia -4 and was quickly bet up to Georgia -6.5. It appears preseason prognosticators were pretty accurate, as the line for the game now 2.5 months later in Week 10 is Georgia -6. Each team’s record against the spread is a good high-level summary of how the season has gone. Georgia came into the year with high hopes of competing for a national championship, and while they certainly still have the opportunity to get there, the road got a lot tighter with a shocking loss at home to South Carolina. Their 3-4 ATS record is a good indicator of how disappointing the year has been relative to aspirations. Whether the loss to South Carolina refocused a Georgia team loaded with arguably the second most blue-chip talent in the country remains to be seen.
For Florida, preseason backup QB Kyle Trask has been a surprisingly effective fill-in. He is completing 67.5% of his passes and has 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. His 8.2 yards per attempt is better than his counterpart, Georgia QB Jake Fromm, who is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. Fromm has received significantly more hype both coming out of high school and as a collegiate player, but he hasn’t shown elite ability in Georgia’s biggest games. While the QBs in this game are likely comparable, Georgia has more talent in most of the other areas on the field.
One interesting trend to consider in this game is that the favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings. That speaks to the known talent that typically exists on both sides. Georgia hopes to make this five in a row on Saturday, but Florida’s only loss of the year was on the road against #1 LSU. Florida knows they can play with anybody and comes into the game with more confidence, which makes them a very live dog in one of the sport’s best rivalries.
With Oklahoma losing last Saturday to Kansas State, Pac-12 North leader Oregon re-entered the national championship conversation. While most believed Oregon’s Week 1 loss to Auburn eliminated their chances of making the playoff, the ACC’s weakness and OU’s failures have re-opened the door. Oregon sits at 80:1 to win it all but has the best opportunity to make the final four of all teams west of the Mississippi. With Auburn looking like a very legitimate Top 10 team, Oregon’s last-minute loss playing halfway across the county in Week 1 doesn’t look so bad.
In Week 9, Oregon escaped a tough Washington State team by kicking a field goal late to win and keep their chances alive. USC came back from down 10 points in the fourth quarter to narrowly escape Colorado with a win. Oregon sits at 7-1 straight up for the year and 4-4 against the spread, while USC is 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread as well.
Oregon has gotten where they are on the strength of the defense, which is allowing just 14.8 points per game. QB Justin Herbert and his offensive line get most of the national attention, but it’s been the defense that has kept them in positions to win close games throughout the season thus far. For USC, QB injuries have created inconsistency, but freshman QB Kedon Slovis did well to throw for 406 yards and four touchdowns last week. Whether Slovis finds similar success against one of the tougher defenses he’ll face this season will likely determine both the winner of the spread and decide the result of this game’s total.
Coming into this game, Oregon should have all the motivation to play well given the national implications that a one-loss campaign could have. Herbert is completing 68.3% of his passes and has 21 touchdowns to just one interception. He is a far more polished QB, and Oregon’s defense is averaging 10.1 points per game less than USC. The Ducks and their faithful will be deservedly disappointed if they fail to notch a win against their rivals from L.A.
On a cold rainy Saturday night in Ann Arbor, Notre Dame saw their national title dreams completely dashed. They were always outsiders after an early season loss at Georgia, but their massive defeat at the hands of Michigan likely left supporters with a lot of questions despite answering definitely the one about whether they were ready to return to the playoff in 2019.
Notre Dame now finds itself 5-2 straight up for the year and 4-3 against the spread. Their opponent in a rebound game at home is Virginia Tech, who is also 5-2 straight up but just 2-5 against the spread. Virginia Tech has won games in narrow fashion, with their last being the thinnest of margins, a two-point conversion victory in six overtimes against North Carolina. Virginia Tech will certainly appreciate the extra week after such a hard-fought battle vs North Carolina.
Virginia Tech has really struggled to pass the ball, with Kansas transfer QB Ryan Willis throwing for only 906 yards thus far. He also only has nine touchdowns against five interceptions. While Notre Dame’s defense looked more than suspect against Michigan, much of Michigan’s success came as a result of a power running game and penalties. Against a mediocre Virginia Tech passing offense, much of the vulnerabilities that Notre Dame revealed last Saturday against Michigan will be less exposed.
For Notre Dame on offense, playing on the road in a tough environment at Michigan likely dampened their success relative to their overall ability. They have averaged 35.6 points per game and should be closer to that number than the 14 they mustered against Michigan. Running back Jafar Armstrong made his return against Michigan but very likely needed a game under his belt before being ready to fully contribute. Notre Dame has more offensive talent than their opponents in this matchup and a defense giving up just .287 points per play vs Virginia Tech’s .435. Notre Dame should appreciate the return home to get their season back on track, and the extent of their hangover after that season-crushing loss at Michigan will determine if they’re able to cover the spread as well.
Here are the betting trends you need to know for Week 10:
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